Market History

Using the past to rationally predict the future.


I’m Troy, the author behind this site. I run a small privately held hedge fund.

We focus on medium-long term investments in U.S. equities, precious metals, and sometimes currencies. Our main portfolio focuses on equities. All of our investments are determined via quantitative models.

The blog

I share my latest thoughts on investing, the stock market, and controversial personal finance issues on the blog.

Market History

Many investors, traders, and market participants have no idea what they’re doing when investing. They blindly believe in dogma such as “rising interest rates cause stocks to fall” without actually doing any historical studies: have rising rates actually caused stocks to fall in the past?

When investing in equities, it is imperative that you understand the history of the stock market and global economic trends. History rhymes, and only by reading an accurate account of the past can you see causation and correlation between fundamentals and the market. Only by doing so can you build accurate investment models. is one of the best accounts of markets in the years past. We avoid the bullshit headlines such as “the S&P 500 fell today because of turmoil in Iraq”. We focus on the true fundamental factors that have driven markets in the past.


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